Mr. Twister

Good!

bo_ba доставил особо ценный линк: Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US, by Dmitry Orlov.
  • Current Mood: cheerful cheerful
The guy is a total economic ignoramus... he really thinks that market is the problem.

If anything, a total collapse of US govt will cause very rapid economic expansion, so the crisis time will be quite short (2-3 years). And, unlike SU, US has a quite decent infrastructure and productive capital.

The danger is not in fast collapse, but in protracted Japanese-style degradation with government trying to "fix" things and making them worse, while the pushback from the population keeps the government from doing anything really drastic - and thus, ironically, keeping it from suicide.
Я не усмотрел, чтобы именно рынок был проблемой. А что вся страна будет как даунтаун Детройт на неопределенный срок я могу легко представить.
I think that the chances for the productive areas of US to suddenly become like Detroit are slim to none.

It took Bolsheviks three generations and millions of dead to get USSR to where it were in late 80s. US still have quite a sizable portion of population who can deal with freedom - and not to turn it into theft fest like post-perestroyka Russia. The population is not defenseless (guns are widespread, meaning that the local communities are able to maintain order - the crime wave is unlikely). Also, production in US is private, so there aren't going to be massive disruption related to "privatization".

Even with totally unprepared for the market freedom and defenseless population, with near-zero capital, and country being on the brink of starvation, it took only 5-6 years of weak-to-nonexistent government to get Russia to the point of livability.
>I think that the chances for the productive areas of US to suddenly become like Detroit are slim to none.

chances for the productive areas of us (like Detroit) to suddenly become like Detroit are slim to none.
Detroit wasn't productive for decades. Meaning it was consuming more than it was producing all that time.

Do not forget that the major part of income in Detroit economy was (and still is) government sector (predominantly military) - which, while appearing to create an illusion of production is, basically, nothing more than wealth destruction.
>Detroit wasn't productive for decades.

Soviet Union wasn't productive for decades.

Exactly my point.
Рецензия на книгу того же автора:

http://www.fourmilab.ch/fourmilog/archives/2009-04/001143.html

Последний параграф такой:

There are some valuable insights here into the Soviet collapse as seen from the perspective of citizens living through it and trying to make the best of the situation, and there are some observations about the U.S. which will make you think and question assumptions about the stability and prospects for survival of the economy and society on its present course. But there are so many extreme statements you come away from the book feeling like you've endured an “end is nigh” rant by a wild-eyed eccentric which dilutes the valuable observations the author makes.
Ну ему-то правда глаза вряд ли колет - он из Америки в Швейцарию уехал лет двадцать назад, опасаясь экономического коллапса, и с тех пор занимался проблемой сохранения своего капитала (сегодня где-то миллиард долларов) в условиях коллапса всего, что только можно себе представить.
Ооооо!

Про Джона Уокера писал здесь: http://yosefk.livejournal.com/67805.html

$1G заработан с Автокада, программист он очень интересный, к сожалению, ничего об этом не пишет практически, часть профхарактера, собственно; редчайший пример очень практичного и совершенно лишенного высоких техидеалов Лиспера и Фортера.

Примеры антифедерализма - здесь: http://www.fourmilab.ch/evilempire/ и здесь: http://www.fourmilab.ch/evilempire/noEU/
:)

For me lab - это тоже мощно. Можно случайные числа снимать с какой-то радиоактивной хреновины через веб и все такое.
Я знал про детектор альфа-частиц как генератор настоящего пуассоновского процесса (с этим, кажется, тоже есть определенные философксие сложности), но не знал, кто за этим стоит.
ROTFL
"The Jails Race once showed the Soviets with a decisive lead, thanks to their innovative GULAG program. But they gradually fell behind, and in the end the Jails Race has been won by the Americans, with the highest percentage of people in jail ever."

Re: ROTFL
И по-буддистски мудрое:

"Any behavior that might result in continued economic growth and prosperity is counterproductive: the higher you jump, the harder you land."

Не завязывай шнурки - все равно развяжутся.