Doing analysis on Vietnam’s economy and market is a dubious task during a Tet (Lunar New Year Festival) month, as was the case this February. For instance, the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange was closed for a week for the festivities.
It would now seem that currency markets are in equilibrium, as the black market trades in line with the upper level of the bands at which banks are allowed to conduct their USD/VND transactions.
One news item of note that is perhaps flying under the radar is an announcement at the end of the month by the State Bank of Vietnam(SBV) to allow banks to lend to all customers at negotiated rates on medium to long term loans as such loans were previously capped at 1.5 times the base rate.
March should be a more exciting month for the VN-Index as the picture on Vietnam corporate 2009 earnings becomes clearer.